The probability-weighted timelines are calculated from a set of individual timelines from each of the single simulation runs. The timeline for the single simulation run is created by registering the start and end times of the activities as they happen in the simulation. Examples of these activities can be the loadout of the 3rd batch of WTGs or the 7th WTG installation.

To create the probability-weighted timeline for all simulation runs, we calculate a probability-weighted value for each activity's start and end time. To get the probability-weighted timeline value for the start of the 7th WTG installation, we collect all the start values from the individual timelines from each simulation run. We then find, e.g., the P50 value from this set of start times. This value is then the start time of that activity in the P50 timeline.

Example:

If there are the following start times from the individual timelines for the installation of the 7th WTG:

5, 3, 12, 7, 4, 8, 10, 5, 3, 1

Here the P50 value is 5, and that is then the start time, which will show in the P50 timeline.

Please see the file on the bottom as an example on how the probability-weighted timeline works in Excel.